28/11/2024 09:42
The Guardian
Fall driven by decline in numbers of dependants arriving on study visasAlthough the headline ONS numbers show net migration falling, the benchmark has shifted. The ONS is today saying that net migration in the year ending June 2023 was 906,000. But that is 166,000 higher than the ONS’s original estimate for net migration in the year ending June 2023.This is how the ONS explains the discrepancy in its report.Estimates in this release have been updated back to YE June 2021. For example, net migration has been revised upwards by 166,000 for YE June 2023 and by 181,000 for YE December 2023. Reasons for these revisions include: more available data, more information on Ukraine visas and improvements to how we estimate migration of non-EU+ nationals.Our latest estimates indicate a fall in long-term net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere). Our provisional estimates show a 20% reduction between our updated estimate for year ending (YE) June 2023 (906,000) and our latest estimate for YE June 2024 (728,000).This fall is driven by a decline in long-term immigration mainly because of declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas. Our most recent data points also show decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is consistent with visa data published by the Home Office, and in part reflects policy changes from earlier this year. It is also driven by a rise in long-term emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses. Continue reading...
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